It's A Ducking Stat Attack

Updated: Apr 4

Time allowing, we are going to be posting a daily blog covering some key stats and trends for some of the day's runners in the UK and Ireland. Please read the stats carefully as not all of them will be positive!

 

Stat 1 - The decision to give a horse in form a break from racing is one of the hardest decisions to make in racing. A lot of owners and trainers tend to get gold fever even when it is in the best interest of the horse to regroup and recharge. A trainer who has seemingly seen the light is Joseph O’Brien. In the last 2 seasons, he has given 23 flat horses a break of at least 151 days following a 1st or 2nd place finish. Those horses have gone on to record 11 wins and 2 places on their reappearance following the break. The horse of interest today is TWILIGHT SPINNER (7/2) who runs in the 3:12 at Cork.



Stat 2 - Oliver Greenall is an under rated trainer and he certainly doesn’t enter his horses just for the sake of it. This is evidenced by the fact that when he has a lone runner on the day in a handicap chase, he has returned home with 10 winners from 28 runners (37.7% Win). The horse of interest today is GOUET DES BRUYERES (9/2) who runs in the 3:20 at Hereford.

Stat 3 - Landing a punt with a horse on handicap debut is never easy. Firstly you have to plot the path to victory a long way in advance and secondly, you need to have the ability to judge your horse away from the race track. One trainer who certainly has the Midas touch is Anthony Honeyball. In the last 5 seasons, Anthony has 10 wins from 32 runners who were making their handicap debut (handicap hurdle races only). It is also worth noting that 8 of those winners were ridden by Rex Dingle. The horse of interest today is PRECIOUS (8/1) who runs in the 4:15 at Plumpton.

Stat 4 - Paddy Twomey and Billy Lee are a heavenly combination for punters. Not only do they have a 26.67% win rate when teaming up without filters but they also show a sizeable level stakes profit to SP. Incredibly, the strike rate improves to 61.9% (13W/21R) when we apply horse age and track location filters (3yos + Munster). The horse of interest today is SPASIBA (11/2) who runs in the 5:30 at Cork.



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