NFL - Week 3
This week's Colossus games are detailed below. To get involved, just click the button below and then buy into our syndicate ticket. If we win or cashout, you will get a percentage share of the prize money won.
Last weeks ticket was brutal! Having turned down a £500 cash out we were so close to going 5/5 in the early games which would have resulted in a massive pay out given that only a 2/3 tickets were still in the pot. However it wasn't to be and out acca also fell at the final hurdle going 3/4. This week we go again though and whilst the Colossus match ups look trappy (hence the low value ticket), I am very keen on our free bet for tonight which will be posted in the comments section at 5:30 tonight.
Raiders (-2) @ Titans
The Raiders some how managed to lose to the Cardinals last week having looked home and dry going into the 4th Quarter. The Titans on the other hand got blown out by Bills and managed just 12 first downs in the process. As a result, they head into this game with a 0-2 record and are desperately in need of a bounce back win. The biggest issue here is that both of these teams have issues on both sides of the ball. The Raiders O-Line was miserable against the Chargers giving up six sacks, whilst the Titan’s secondary got destroyed by Josh Allen last week. Ultimately, this is an incredibly difficult match up to call because I either see a close fought win for the Raiders (1-6 points) or a blowout win for the Titans with their pass rush and simulated pressure making Carr’s life a living hell throughout.
Key Stat - Away favourites are 181-99-1 (64.6% Win) since 2015 against non-division rivals when the total is less than 50. Average win margin = 4.8pts
Ravens (-3) @ Patriots
Like the Raiders, the Ravens managed to throw away a win last weekend in the 4th Quarter against the Dolphins. Up until that point, Lamar and Co had looked rock solid in all areas and they look to have started the season in good form. The Patriots managed to improve their record to 1 and 1 last weekend with a hard fought win against the Steelers. Whilst the margin of victory was only 3pts, they were by far the better team and I guess the worry for Big Bill will be that his offence is really struggling to convert at the moment which is not ideal when you have the Raven’s coming to town! That being said, the last time these two teams played in New England, the Pats managed to walk away with a 7pt win despite going into the game as a 6pt dog with the total set at 41.5. This time around, Vegas have cut the spread by 3 and have increased the total by the same amount which is an indication that they believe that this is going to be a close game which will probably be decided by interceptions, fumbles and Special Teams.
Key Stat - Games featuring away favourites, play non-division rivals, with a total of less than 47, are 80-114-4 (41.2%) over/under since 2015.
Texans @ Bears (-3)
You know you’re a bad team when you’re playing the bears and find yourself as a 3pt dog. The Texans are woeful at the moment, they’ve lost a number of key players in recent years and that just look to be in rebuild mode right now. However, much like the Lions, they’re a team that try to be competitive and their defence does a good job of keeping their opposition’s big play chances to a minimum. The Bears have had a tough opening to the season facing the 49ers and the Packers and they’ve done well to come out of those games with a 1-1 record despite their offence being unable to generate any real movement. Whilst I really can’t see any route to victory here for the Texans, I don’t expect it to be a high scoring affair as both of the teams really struggle to score points.
Key Stat - The over/under is 6–15-0 (28.6%) when the Bears have played as home favourites since 2018.
Packers @ Buccaneers (-1)
This promises to be a really fun match up and what really intrigues me is the line. Since Brady moved to Tampa, they’ve lost just 3 games at home to non-division rivals and both of those defeats came against teams that went onto win the Super Bowl (Rams/Chiefs). With that in mind and given that the Packers were destroyed the last time they’ve visited Tampa, I’m struggling to see how Vegas only the favours the Bucs by 1. In their defence, the Bucs haven’t exactly looked outstanding so far this year, and we all know about Bradys off the field issues but they dealt with the Cowboys defence in week 1, and they dispatched their boogie team (the Saints) in week 2, despite facing a very hostile crowd and some very lenient umpires. With that in mind, I am going to side with TB12 and the Bucs in this even though they’re missing some key players. Whilst Rogers may have other ideas, I just think the Packers have more to prove to me going into this match up. With the total so low, you have to believe this probably comes down to a clutch play late in the game.
Key Stat - The Buccaneers are 10-3-0 (76.9% win) since 2020 as a home favourite against non-division rivals. Average win margin = 17.6pts
Falcons @ Seahawks (-1)
The run of trappy match ups continues. Truth be told, I hate both of these teams and the Falcons in particular have been responsible for a number of Colossus loses over the years so this is the kind of game that gives me nightmares. However, the Falcons look like a team playing for draft picks this season whereas the Seahawks and Pete Carroll seem desperate to prove they can do big things without Russel Wilson. That factor coupled with the crowd at Lumen Field, definitely gives them an edge and whilst Vegas thinks this will be close, I think the Seahawks pull away in the 4th Quarter for a comfortably enough victory.
Key Stat - The Seahawks are 35-8-0 (81.4% Win) at home against non-divisional rivals when the game total was less than 47 since 2010. Average win margin = 8.9pts
Fortyniners (-1.5) @ Broncos
The 49ers lost Trey Lance for the season last week meaning that Jimmy G is now the starter for the rest of the season. In truth, they looked like a better team with him back under centre but we all know his limitations by now and they have significantly less x-factor with him back in the team. Whilst at first glance, you struggle to see why Vegas have this line so close, you quickly see why once you look at Russel Wilson’s record against the 49ers. He has a career record against them of 16-4 and he is 8-2 since Kyle Shanahan took over. It must be said however that he has looked very shaky in his first two games for the Broncos but there were glimmers of hope last weekend especially as far as his developing connection with Sutton is concerned and if the Broncos can build on that and if their defence can pressure and confuse Jimmy G, I think they might be able to get a win here. It certainly won’t be easy though and the 49ers pass rush has the ability to cause huge problems for any offence let alone one that’s 0-6 in the Redzone so far this season.
Key Stat - The Broncos are 9-5-0 (64.3% Win) as a home dog against non-division rivals when the line is 3 or less since 2010.
Cowboys @ Giants (-1)
To be honest, I would be shocked if anyone makes it to this final game as the ticket and we will certainly be cashing out after game 5 if we make it that far as this match up is virtually impossible to predict. Whilst the Giants probably have the better offence at the moment and in particular, the better Runningback, the Cowboys defence is fierce and their pass rush is deadly. I expect them to put Daniel Jones under all kinds of pressure and if that proves to be the case, I think they will walk away from New York with a win under their belts.
Key Stat - The Cowboys are 7-27-0 (20.6% Win) as an away dog against a division rival when the game total is less than 42. Average losing margin = 13pts.