Today's Cheat Sheet (29/10/22)

We have some great racing today across multiple cards. With that in mind, we thought we would share today's Cheat Sheet.


THE CHEAT SHEET
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TRACKER HORSES - 29/10/22


We have also provided our reviews of our tracker horses for today. The post below was sent out to members last night as part of our Road To Cheltenham package so the odds available now may vary significantly.


1:43 Galway – 2m½f Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle (IRE Incentive Race) (4yo+)

No Cheltenham Shortlist horses here but we do have one basic tracker horse.

SANDOR CLEGANE (15/8) – I think it is fair to say that this horse didn’t handle the occasion at Punchestown in April but prior to that, he had looked like a very smart horse in the making. His form obviously has a solid look to it and he certainly has the size and scope to develop into a decent novice hurdler. However, the yard is having a bit of a baron spell and this is clearly a competitive Maiden with THREE CARD BRAG and GREEN GLORY holding solid claims, so I will be keeping my money in my pocket this time around.

Advised Bet: N/A

Bet Confidence: N/A

 

2:18 Galway - 2m½f Corrib Oil Maiden Hurdle (5yo+)

No Cheltenham Shortlist horses in this contest, but we do have two basic tracker runners to have a look at.

PATH D’OROUX (9/4) – We only got to see this horse once last season, but he certainly made an impression when winning what is always a competitive bumper at Punchestown. He was backed at big prices that day and although he was very keen early (unable to get a lead), he travelled powerfully and when the jockey asked him to quicken, he put a bit a distance between himself and the field and won with his ears pricked as the closers came at him. Tomorrow’s test will obviously be very different, but he’s schooled nicely and he’s a fascinating prospect. The only slightly off-putting factor is the addition of the TT but that may well just be to help him to drop his head.

ITSWHATUNITESUS (2/1) – I am sure this horse was used as a test dummy last season by Gordon to gauge the ability of FACILE VEGA prior to his clash with AMERICAN MIKE at Cheltenham. It must be said that he came up well short that day at Leopardstown, but he was always likely to be better suited by hurdling and the vibes coming out of the yard have been positive in recent weeks. On paper, it is very difficult for me to split the two tracker horses so no bets here, but I will be watching with my notebook open with future races in mind.

Advised Bet: N/A

Bet Confidence: N/A

 

2:05 Ascot – 1m7½f Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2) (3yo+)

No Cheltenham Shortlist horses in this contest, but we do have three basic tracker runners to have a look at.

ANYHARMINASKING (7/2) – This horse’s only real claim to fame for a while was that he beat CONSTITUTION HILL in a PTP back in April 2021. However, the penny dropped for him in January this year when he landed two handicap hurdle contests with consummate ease. He now finds himself off a mark of 137 and whilst life is bound to get tougher from here, if anyone can eke out a little more improvement from a handicapper then it’s Jonjo.

BROOMFIELD BURG (11/2) – I had high hopes for this horse last season as I thought he was almost certain to land a big handicap, but he disappointed me on multiple occasions and seemingly always found a way to make his life harder. He returned this season at Chepstow having had a wind opp and once again he fluffed his lines having looked like the winner coming to two out. I am going to give him one last chance tomorrow but if he doesn’t go and win, then it will almost certainly trigger his removal from my tracker.

WASHINGTON (6/1) – This horse re-opposes Hacker Des Places tomorrow who beat him at Aintree on his final start of the season. For a long way that day it was Washington who looked like the most likely winner, but he was posted wide and was very quirky under pressure. Ultimately, I think he has scope from his mark of 128 but I won’t be backing him until he steps up in trip, as I think that will bring out the best of him.

Advised Bet: BROOMFIELD BURG (11/2) - EW

Bet Confidence: ⭐️⭐️

 

3:50 Ascot – 1m7½f Gl Events Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+)

No Cheltenham Shortlist horses in this contest, but we do have two basic tracker runners to have a look at.

LEAVE OF ABSENCE (7/4) – I’ve mentioned LOOKAWAY a lot in the last couple of weeks and this runner is another who has form with that horse having finished 3rd behind him in the G2 Bumper at Aintree. I understand that Leave of Absence has being schooling nicely in the build-up to his debut tomorrow and whilst his future probably lies over further, this course and distance should play to his strengths. This race has been won by some nice types in the past and realistically whichever horse wins this contest is likely to be at least a 130-140 horse in the making.

BLOW YOUR WAD (10/3) – Once again we have LOOKAWAY form on show as this hose finished 4th behind both him and Leave of Absence at Aintree. I am not sure this lad has the same level of scope as the horse above, but he was held in high regard by Tom last season, and it will be fascinating to see if he can serve it up to his market rival late in the game. Even if he does manage to get the better of the favourite, he may still have to deal with the likes of INVINCIBLE NAO and RAMBO T which really shows how deep this race potentially is.

Advised Bet: N/A

Bet Confidence: N/A

 

1:50 Wetherby – 2m3½f bet365 Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+)

No Cheltenham Shortlist horses in this contest, but we do have one basic tracker runner to have a look at.

JOE DADANCER (5/2) – This horse was in the process of absolutely hosing up in a PTP before falling at the last. The form of that race is working out okay but the main reason this horse landed in my tracker was because of some of the whispers that have been coming out of Ben’s yard about his homework. Obviously, info surrounding novices/maidens always must be taken with a considerable pinch of salt, but this lad certainly has the profile to develop into a nice type. As a side thought, Ben Pauling is now operating from his new yard and it is a truly stunning facility, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him greatly improve his winners tally this season.

Advised Bet: JOE DADANCER (5/2) - WIN

Bet Confidence: ⭐️⭐️

 

2:25 Wetherby - 2m bet365 Mares' Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

No Cheltenham Shortlist horses in this contest, but we do have two basic tracker runners to have a look at.

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES (11/8) – This Mare is obviously extremely versatile and on her day she’s pretty bloody good. She won this race last year comfortably and whilst she will have to carry a penalty tomorrow, we must assume that Dan will once again have her dialled up for this. My only worry would be the ground, as at 2 miles I do think she wants plenty of give underfoot. The current going is official good to soft but with further rain forecast, it is likely to be soft come post time in which case this Mare is without doubt the one to beat.

NINA THE TERRIER (7/2) – This Mare is a bit of an enigma and she is in danger of becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me as I’ve backed her on a few occasions without success. Her form is rock solid though and she certainly has time on her side, as she has only had 9 runs over hurdles. As with the favourite, she is going to want further rain because really, she is a 2m 4f horse so she will need this to be a test of stamina rather than speed. However, she will have a fitness edge over her rivals and both MOLLY OLLYS WISHES and MARTELLO SKY have to give her weight.

Advised Bet: N/A

Bet Confidence: N/A

 

3:35 Wetherby – 3m bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Class 1) (5yo+)

A small field for this race but we have one Cheltenham Shortlist horse and two basic tracker horses to have a look at!

AHOY SENOR – ‘A valiant second in the Browns Advisory before winning the Mildmay at Aintree. Both those races lacked strength in depth, but it will be interesting to see if he can take a further step forward this season.’

AHOY SENOR (11/8) – This son of Dylan Thomas was a revelation last season for Lucinda, and he certainly surprised me. He is a relentless galloper and whilst he can throw in the odd mistake, he usually recovers quickly due to the sheer size of his engine. He is due to face a very competitive field tomorrow and it will be fascinating to see if he can fend off a couple of rivals that clearly have an edge on him as far as tactical speed is concerned. He was obviously no match for BRAVEMANSGAME when the two met at Kempton last year, but Wetherby is a very different track, and this fella is certainly better suited to going left-handed. The market is already speaking strongly in his favour and for me is a worthy favourite.

BRAVEMANSGAME (7/4) – Truth be told, I’ve never been a massive fan of this horse and he’s only in my tracker so that I can keep track of his collateral form. I don’t doubt that he has talent, and Paul obviously holds him in high regard, but my view (rightly or wrongly) is that he’s just been placed extremely well during his Chasing career. Sod's Law, he will probably go and hose up on the bridle tomorrow now in which case I may well have to revise my position but at least I will be able to blame the Wind Op for the sudden change of heart!

ELDORADO ALLEN (9/2) – Underestimate this horse at your peril was the message I received from someone in the Tizzard camp when I asked about him earlier in the week. At first, I thought their confidence was a little mad but the more I look at this race, the more I warm to Eldorado’s chances. We know that the track is likely to suit him, and we also know that he’s blessed with plenty of speed which is always going to be a major asset against a horse like AHOY SENIOR. If BRAVEMANSGAME ends up needing this first run back which I suspect, he might after the Wind Op, then I see no reason why Eldorado can’t at least finish 2nd providing he jumps well.

Advised Bet: ELDORADO ALLEN (9/2) - EW

Bet Confidence: ⭐️⭐️

 

3:08 Ayr - 2m4½f Marine & Lawn Handicap Chase (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-135)


MAROWN (4/1) - This horse had a bitterly disappointing season last year but is now very well handicapped as a result. Usually I wouldn't have a huge amount of interest in a horse with his profile but he showed clear signs of life to me at Perth on his final run and I think he may now finally be ready to fulfil his potential. Nicky has had a very good month already and he has seemingly found this horse a great place to kick off his season. I am sure his high profile owners won't want to waste any further time with Marown so my hope is that he'll be fit and ready to roll first time up tomorrow in what is a pretty poor race for the grade. If he does get the win tomorrow then he might yet land himself a nice pot up north later in the season.

Advised Bet: MAROWN (4/1) - WIN

Bet Confidence: ⭐️⭐️

 

Note: Bet Confidence will follow the same scale as our Star Ratings on the CS.


1-2 Star = Small Stake

3-4 Star = Medium Stake

5 Star = Max Stake




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