It’s Northumberland Plate day at Newcastle which means they have a fantastic race card featuring some top notch horses. We are going to have a look through some of the big races in more detail.
1:45 Newcastle - William Hill Handicap - This race is a Class 2 handicap to be run over 6 furlongs. It must be said that this is not an easy puzzle to try and solve. Looking at the data we have, the key trends, and the pace profile, we were able to cut the field down to a shortlist of 5: EJTILAAB, WOVEN, LEXINGTON DASH, STREAMLINE and DANZAN. However, getting that shortlist down from 5 to just 1 or 2, was far from easy, as I think just about any of them could potentially win with a clean trip and a good ride. Ultimately though, I believe you’re going to want to be drawn middle to high in this race and that ruled out both, WOVEN and LEXINGTON DASH. Looking at recent speed figures, EJTILAAB tops the chart for us so he therefore ticks all the boxes and we are also going to take a chance on STREAMLINE as an EW play. Yes, he has a bit of an attitude problem and can be free early in the run but he’s drawn in amongst the speed and with the hood back on, I think we may see a return to form once again. SELECTIONS = EJTILAAB (5/1) + STEAMLINE (14/1) - EW.
2:20 Newcastle - William Hill Chipchase Stakes - This race is a Group 3 to be run over 6 furlongs. Whilst it is competitive, the 2 horses of major interest are, KHUZAAM and DILIGENT HARRY. All being equal, I think I’d probably be siding with the latter but unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have the best of draws and that has tipped the scales heavily in favour of KUZAAM who is our bet in the race at 3/1. Although he was very disappointing last time out at Ascot, I am strongly of the opinion that he is simply an all weather specialist and there’s no doubting that his speed figures and sectional times, on artificial surfaces, put him at a class above his opposition today. SELECTION - KUZAAM (3/1) - WIN.
2:55 Newcastle - The Northumberland Vase - This race is a Class 2 handicap to be run over 2 miles. This is the consolation race for the main event and having crunched all the numbers, we think that the 3 potential winners are: ZEEBAND, MARGARET DUMONT and A STAR ABOVE. It is not an easy task to split the three in our shortlist but ultimately, ZEEBAND and A STAR ABOVE have better form in the book and are also entirely unexposed at this trip which could potentially bring about further improvement. Hopefully we haven’t made the wrong choice! SELECTIONS = ZEEBAND (4/1) - WIN + A STAR ABOVE (12/1) - EW.
2:30 Newcastle - The Northumberland Plate - This race is identical to the 2:55 only it’s a better field and bigger prize money. The first question we always ask in a race such as this is, ‘do we have any potential graded horses running in a handicap off low weights?’. The answer here is a definitive, yes and the horse in question is DUBIOUS AFFAIR. This mare ran second in the Copper Horse Stakes at Ascot on her seasonal debut. Now, the worry here is the bounce factor having had two runs back to back but providing she avoids that, she’ll go very very close in this race. As far as potential alternatives are concerned, the likes of AUSTRALIS, MILDENBERGER and ISLAND BRAVE all have the right credentials to run well. SELECTION = DUBIOUS AFFAIR (6/1) - EW.
Best of luck with your bets today. We will have further reviews/tips coming up from Newmarket, Windsor and the Curragh today. 🦆